If Cannabis is at "an Inflection Point,” What Does That Mean and Why Should You Care?
By Claire Grusin | February, 12, 2026
In just the past few months, some of the top voices in cannabis have proclaimed that the industry has reached “an inflection point.” But, what exactly is an “inflection point,” and why should we care?
The phrase “Strategic Inflection Point,” was first coined by Former Intel CEO, Andy Grove in his 1996 book entitled: “Only the Paranoid Survive.” Grove explains that a “strategic inflection point” is: “A time in the life of a business when its fundamentals are about to change.”
Since then executives, military leaders, and policy makers alike have been using the phrase “inflection point” to mean some kind of sweeping, fundamental shift in an endeavor. But, how much change actually constitutes “an inflection point?”
Rita McGrath, author of one of my favorite books on change, called “Seeing Around Corners: How to Spot Inflection Points in Business Before They Happen,” explains that an “inflection point is something that is going to change your business 10x,” either ten times faster, ten times cheaper, or ten times more efficient.
“An inflection point is something that is going to change your business 10x.”
Rita McGrath explains on famed psychology podcast, “The Hidden Brain,” that there are four distinct stage of inflection:
o1. The Hype Cycle
Excitement for the future and the possibilities. (The Green Rush, 2014-2022)
o2. The Hype Fades
It doesn’t measure up to the what everyone expected, lots of people go out of business and lots of people lose lots of money. Those that survive can become threats. (2022-2025ish)
o3. The Growth Cycle
“Oh, Wow, now I get it!” – A “flowering of giants” cycle. (2018-present)
o4. The New Normal
Over time people don’t remember what it was like before and assume things have always been this way.
So, is it true? Is cannabis at a “strategic inflection point?”
According to the true definition of a strategic inflection point, the answer is, yes. Absolutely. Federal rescheduling has begun to loosen financial markets, so business owners, and entrepreneurs can more easily get access to capital. The lifting of 280E burdens has obviously been a huge win for operators and perhaps, most importantly, investor sentiment is beginning to thaw.
how can you make sure you don’t miss the next “strategic inflection point?”
What causes some business and marketing executives to miss strategic inflection points?
Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, the founders of Behavioral Economics and the modern day Cognitive Bias framework, explain that people often use mental shortcuts during their day to day decision making. (Heuristics is the study of mental shortcuts and how they influence our behavior.) These banal, every day decisions are more prone to cognitive bias, and while shortcuts save time and may even lead to short term gains, they can create blindspots, and even hide mistakes over time.
Rita McGrath explains that executives mostly miss inflection points because they are so focused on day to day operations, that they don’t have time to also scan the landscape for opportunities. Executives also have more at stake if things go sideways, so they are often inherently more risk averse. She explains that executives don’t want to see inflections points because of:
cognitive bias & fear of loss
Acknowledging change threatens our own definition of value and worth.
2. Overconfidence in past success
The dreaded ““n” of 1”. You know your customers best of all, why would anything ever change?
3. Organization Inertia
- “It’s just so “complicated.”” ““We aren’t that kind of company.””
4. A Disconnect between employees and executives
To spot inflection points, you have to go to where the change is happening!
Your employees are on the front lines of inflection. (Oh, and, if your employees are no longer buying or consuming your products, that is a huge signal!)
To listen to the 2025 “Hidden Brain” episode “When to Pivot,” with Rita McGrath please listen below: